The main factor will be a reduction in the supply of quotas on the market

Carbon market analysts generally expect European carbon prices to rise in 2026.

In mid-December, Montel experts predicted that next year the average EUA price would be €92.02/t, which is about 24% higher than in 2025. Their assumptions are based on a tighter supply-demand balance in the European emissions trading system.

ING expects the average price of EU emission allowances to be €83/t next year, compared to an average of around €75/t in 2025. The financial group’s experts note that the reduction in supply on the European quota market will continue to push prices up in 2026. However, this scenario could be changed by significant speculative long-term positions already accumulated by investment funds and growing pressure within the EU on the need to find a balance and achieve decarbonization goals.

Climate Market Now believes that in the first quarter of 2026, the market will aim to reach a historic high for the benchmark contract at €101.25/t, a level last seen in February 2023. However, the main risk is increased political obstacles if prices overcome this barrier too quickly and industrial demand in the EU continues to decline.

BBVA’s baseline scenario for 2026 assumes that carbon allowances will trade in the range of €80-100/t. Here, too, the view is that a prolonged stay above €100 is likely to trigger political pressure that will limit this upward movement.

On December 15, the last day of trading for the current December contract, European carbon prices rose to a two-year high of €85/t. It is noteworthy that the rise in EUA prices at the end of the year occurred against the backdrop of a significant decline in natural gas prices in Europe, whereas it usually changes in line with changes in the TTF benchmark contract.

In the UK, according to Montel experts’ forecasts, carbon prices will range from £57 to £76 per ton in 2026. This divergence in expectations is explained by uncertainty about the pace of integration between the British and European ETS.

The parties agreed to merge their emissions trading systems during a summit in May 2025. At the same time, the UK did not receive an exemption from CBAM at the end of this year. However, political experts have expressed the opinion that this was not possible under the current track. The country may receive an exemption in 2026, provided that it merges with the EU ETS. The date of the upcoming summit has not yet been set, but it will likely take place in the spring. In addition, the UK plans to introduce its own CBAM in 2027, with the first payments due in 2028.

By 2030, the average price of CO₂ emissions in the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) could reach €126/t. This figure is the consensus among estimates by leading analytical institutions, including BloombergNEF, ABN Amro, Refinitiv, ICIS, S&P Global, Aurora Energy Research, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).